How do you calculate stock variance in a pub or restaurant?
Work out cost of sales as opening stock plus purchases minus closing stock, subtract it from net sales to get the gross profit you actually made, and compare that percentage with the theoretical GP your recipes imply. The difference in percentage points multiplied by net sales is the cash the variance cost you over the period.
What is an acceptable level of stock variance?
Most operators treat anything inside a point or two as normal measurement noise and investigate beyond that, though a high-volume wet operation will tolerate less than a kitchen with a lot of fresh produce. What matters more than the threshold is the direction of travel over several counts, because one bad period is usually a counting problem.
What causes GP variance most often?
In wet sales it is free-pouring instead of measuring, followed by unrecorded staff drinks and wastage that never makes it into the book. In food it is over-portioning and prep waste. Till errors — items rung through at the wrong price or voided incorrectly — account for a surprising share on both sides and are the easiest to fix.
Is stock variance the same as theft?
No, and starting there is the most expensive mistake a manager can make with this number. The ordinary explanations are portion control, waste, unrecorded staff consumption and till errors, and all four are training and process problems. Investigating a team before you have ruled those out damages trust you will need for everything else.
How often should we take stock?
Weekly for wet stock in a busy site, monthly as a minimum for food, and always at the same point in the trading cycle. Frequency matters less than consistency: a monthly count taken properly every time tells you far more than a weekly one done in a rush by whoever is on shift.